Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory

Faculty of Science


Champredon D, Shoukat A, Singer BH, Galvani AP, Moghadas SM, Curbing the 2019 Samoa measles outbreak. The Lancet Infectious Diseases (in press).

Champredon D, Shoukat A, Moghadas SM, Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a Clostridium difficile vaccine candidate in a hospital setting. Vaccine (in press).


Shoukat A, Vilches T, Moghadas SM, Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic Zika virus vaccine in the Americas. Emerging Infectious Diseases 12: 2191-2196.

Champredon D, Zhang K, Smieja M, Moghadas SM, Clostridium difficile intervention timelines for diagnosis, isolation, and treatment. American Journal of Infection Control (Major Article) 47: 1370-1374.

Wang Z, Röst G, Moghadas SM, Delay in booster schedule as a control parameter in vaccination dynamics, Journal of Mathematical Biology 79: 2157-2182.

Champredon D, Moghadas SM, On the reproduction number of epidemics with sub-exponential growth. Trends in Biomathematics: Mathematical Modelling for Health, Harvesting, and Population Dynamics, 309-320.

Vilches T, Jaberi-Douraki M, Moghadas SM, Risk of influenza infection with low vaccine effectiveness: the role of avoidance behaviour, Epidemiology and Infection 147: e75, 1-8.


Shoukat A, Vilches TN, Moghadas SM, Cost-effectiveness of a potential Zika vaccine candidate: a case study for Colombia, BMC Medicine 16: 100.

Shoukat A, Van Exan RJ, Moghadas SM, Cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine candidate for Haemophilus influenzae serotype ‘a’, Vaccine 36: 1681-1688.

Champredon D, Laskowski M, Charland N, Moghadas SM, Assessing the benefits of early pandemic influenza vaccine availability: a case study for Ontario, Canada, Scientific Reports 8: 6492.

Champredon D, Najafi M, Laskowski M, Chit A, Moghadas SM, Individual movements and contact patterns in a Canadian long-term care facility, AIMS Public Health 5: 111-121.

Röst G, Kuniya T, Moghadas SM, Wu J, Global dynamics of an epidemiological model with age-of-infection dependent treatment rate, Ricerche di Matematica 67: 125-140.


Maghdoori S, Moghadas SM, Assessing the effect of patient screening and isolation on curtailing Clostridium difficile infection in hospital settings, BMC Infectious Diseases 17: 384.

Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Espindola A, Pereira RS, Abdirizak F, Laskowski M, Viboud C, Chowell G, Asymptomatic transmission and the dynamics of Zika infection, Scientific Reports 7(1): 5829.

Charania N, Moghadas SM, Modelling the effects of booster dose vaccination schedules and recommendations for public health immunization programs: the case of Haemophilus influenzae serotype b, BMC Public Health 17:705.

Najafi M, Laskowski M, de Boer PT, Williams E, Chit A, Moghadas SM, The effect of individual movements and interventions on the spread of influenza in long-term care facilities, Medical Decision Making 37(8): 871-881.

Chen L, Mukerjee G, Dorfman R, Moghadas SM, Disease risk assessment using a Voronoi-based network analysis of genes and variants scores, Frontiers in Genetics 8: 29.

Champredon D, Moghadas SM, Quantifying the contribution of asymptomatic infection to the cumulative incidence, Epidemiology and Infection 145: 1256-1258..

Moghadas SM, Mathematical modelling of tuberculosis, Editorial: Mathematical Population Studies 24: 1-2.

Knipl D, Röst G, Moghadas SM, Population dynamics of epidemic and endemic states of drug-resistance emergence in infectious diseases. PeerJ 5: e2817.

Smirnov A, Chowell-Puente G, deCamp L, Moghadas SM, Sheppard MJ, Improving epidemic size prediction through stable reconstruction of disease parameters by reduced iteratively regularized Gauss-Newton algorithm, Journal of Inverse and Ill-Posed Problems (in press).

Shoukat A, Espindola A, Röst G, Moghadas SM, How the interval between primary and booster vaccination affects long-term disease dynamics, BIOMAT Proceedings (in press).

Brauer F, Xiao Y, Moghadas SM, Drug-resistance in an age-of-infection model, Mathematical Population Studies, Special Volume on Tuberculosis 24: 64-78.

Espindola A, Varughese M, Laskowski M, A. Shoukat, Heffernan J, Moghadas SM, Strategies for halting the rise of MDR-TB epidemic: assessing the effect of early case detection and isolation, International Health 9: 80-90. [Editor’s Choice]


Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Moghadas SM, Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early sub-exponential growth dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13(123) pii: 20160659.

Milwid R, Steriu A, Arino J, Heffernan J, Hyder A, Schanzer D, Gardner E, Haworth-Brockman M, Isfeld-Kiely H, Langley JM, Moghadas SM, Towards standardizing a lexicon of infectious disease modelling terms. Frontiers in Public Health (in press).

Knipl D, Röst G, Moghadas SM, Population dynamics of epidemic and endemic states of drug-resistance emergence in infectious diseases. PeerJ Life, Bio, & Health Sciences (in press).

Xiao Y, Brauer F, Moghadas SM, Can treatment increase the epidemic size? Journal of Mathematical Biology 72: 343-361.

Chowell G, Hincapie-Palacio D, Ospina J, Pell B, Tariq A, Dahal S, Moghadas SM, Smirnova A, Simonsen L, Viboud C. Using phenomenological models to characterize transmissibility and forecast patterns and final burden of Zika epidemics. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2016 May 31. Edition 1.

Knipl D, Moghadas SM, Comparative dynamics of monovalent and bivalent vaccination for immunologically unrelated pathogens, Journal of Biological Systems 24: 91-115.

Kang M, Espindola AL, Laskowski M, Moghadas SM, A modelling framework for serotype replacement in vaccine-preventable diseases, BIOMAT Proceedings: 54-66.

Konini A, Kang M, Moghadas SM, Simulating immune interferences on the effect of a bivalent glycoconjugate vaccine against Haemophilus influenzae serotypes ‘a’ and ‘b’, Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology, Article ID 5486869.

Konini A, Nix E, Ulanova M, Moghadas SM, Dynamics of naturally acquired antibody against Haemophilus influenzae type a capsular polysaccharide in a Canadian Aboriginal population, Preventive Medicine Reports 3: 145-150. 


Laskowski M, Xiao Y, Charlend N, Moghadas SM, Strategies for early vaccination during novel influenza outbreaks, Scientific Reports 5: 18062.

Knipl D, Moghadas SM, The potential impact of vaccination on the dynamics of dengue infection, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 77: 2212-2230.

Moghadas SM, Haworth-Brockman M, Isfeld-Keily H, Kettner J, Improving public health policy through infection transmission modelling: guidelines for creating a community of practice, Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology 26: 191-195.

Konini A, Moghadas SM, Modelling the impact of vaccination on curtailing Haemophilus influenzae serotype ‘a’, Journal of Theoretical Biology 387, 101-110.

Xiao Y, Moghadas SM, The impact of ethnicity and geographic location of residence on the 2009 influenza H1N1 pandemic vaccination, Epidemiology and Infection 143, 757-765.

Laskowski M, Dubey P, Collison S, Heffernan JM, Alexander ME, Moghadas SM, What is the optimal level of information dissemination during an epidemic? BIOMAT Proceedings: 206-220.


Morrison K, Buckeridge DL, Xiao Y, Moghadas SM, The impact of geographical location of residence on disease outcomes among Canadian First Nations populations during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, Health and Place 26: 53–59.

Laskowski M, Greer AL, Moghadas SM, Antiviral strategies for emerging influenza viruses in remote communities, PLoS One 9(2): e89651.

Jaberi–Douraki M, Moghadas SM, Optimal control of vaccination dynamics during an influenza epidemic, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 11: 1045-1063.

Driedger SM, Cooper E, Moghadas SM, Developing model–based public health policy through knowledge translation: the need for a “Communities of Practice”, Public Health 128: 561-567.

Laskowski M, Moghadas SM, A general framework for agent–based modelling with applications to infectious disease dynamics, BIOMAT Proceedings: 318-339.

Espindola A, Souto Martinez A, Moghadas SM, An agent–based modelling framework for tuberculosis infection with drug–resistance, BIOMAT Proceedings: 374-388.

Kim HM, Laskowski M, Moghadas SM, Sajad A, Asif M, A framework for comparing early warning systems across domains: a step toward a data-integrated public health EWS, IEEE Information Reuse and Integration 80-86. 


Xiao Y, Moghadas SM, Impact of viral drift on vaccination dynamics and patterns of seasonal influenza, BMC Infectious Diseases 13: 589.

Laskowski M, Duvvuri VRSK, Buckeridge DL, Wu G, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities, Preventive Medicine 57: 910–913.

Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Towers SMJ, Buckeridge DL, Moghadas SM, Age distribution of infection and hospitalization among Canadian First Nations during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, American Journal of Public Health 103: e39–e44.

Jaberi–Douraki M, Moghadas SM, Optimality of a time–dependent treatment profile during an epidemic, Journal of Biological Dynamics 7: 133–147.

Jaberi–Douraki M, Heffernan JM, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Optimal treatment profile during an influenza pandemic, Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems 21(3): 237–252.

Christian M, Fisman DN, Fowler R, Gomersall C, Herridge M, Hupert N, Jimenez E, Kraus P, Lawless B, Lazar N, Marshall J, Mathivha R, Moghadas SM, Muller M, Pearmain L, Rubinson L, Sprung C, Stelfox H, Tillyard A, Wax E, Zygun D, Critical care resource allocation: trying to PREEDICCT outcomes without a crystal ball, Critical Care 17; 107.

Morrison K, Xiao Y, Moghadas SM, Buckeridge DL, Using surveillance data to identify risk factors for severe H1N1 in First Nations, Online Journal of Public Health Informatics 5(1): e42.

Moghadas SM, Beni Sahai: The man of science, Canadian Applied Mathematics Quarterly, Preface.


Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Bowman CS, Greer AL, Fisman DN, Moghadas SM, Transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in remote and isolated Canadian communities: a modelling study, British Medical Journal – Open, 2: e001614.

Duvvuri VRSK, Heffernan JM, Moghadas SM, Duvvuri D, Guo H, Fisman DN, Wu J, Wu GE, The Role of cellular immunity in Influenza H1N1 population dynamics, BMC Infectious Diseases 12: 329.

Richardson K, Driedger SM, Pizzi NJ, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Indigenous populations health protection: a Canadian perspective, BMC Public Health 12: 1098. 


Moghadas SM, Pizzi NJ, Wu J, Tamblyn SE, Fisman DN, Canada in the face of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5: 83–88.

Laskowski M, Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Greer AL, Wu J, Moghadas SM, The impact of demographic variables on disease spread: influenza in remote communities, Scientific Reports 1; 105: 1–7.

Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Pizzi NJ, Moghadas SM, A classical approach for estimating the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Canadian Applied Mathematics Quarterly 19: 185–194.

Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Greer AL, Sander B, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities. BMC Research Notes 4: 537.

Bowman CS, Arino J, Moghadas SM, Evaluation of vaccination strategies during pandemic outbreaks. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 8: 117–125 (Special Volume on Pandemic H1N1 2009).

Wessel L, Hua Y, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Public health interventions for epidemics: implications for multiple infection waves. BMC Public Health 11 (Suppl 1): S2.

Arino J, Bauch CT, Brauer F, Driedger SM, Greer AL, Moghadas SM, Pizzi NJ, Sander B, Tuite A, van den Driessche P, Watmough J, Wu J, Yan P, Pandemic influenza: modelling and public health perspectives, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 8: 1–20 (Special Volume on Pandemic H1N1 2009).

Mostaco–Guidolin LC, Pizzi NJ, Demko AB, Moghadas SM, A software development framework for agent–based infectious disease modelling, In: Biomedical Engineering, Trends, Researches and Technologies, In–Tech, Chapter 33, pp. 641–664.

Moghadas SM, Dynamics of resistance in influenza with compensatory mutations, Mathematical Population Studies, 18: 106–121 (Special Issue on Immunology).

Rathi N, Moghadas SM, Shivakumar PN, Therapeutic Modelling of Diabetes Type 1, In: Type 1 Diabetes – Complications, Pathogenesis, and Alternative Treatments, In–Tech, Chapter 22, pp. 461–470.

Conway JM, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Hupert N, Meza R, Davoudi B, English K, van den Driessche P, Brauer F, Ma J, Meyers LA, Smieja M, Greer AL, Skowronski DM, Buckeridge DL, Kwong JC, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Coombs D, Brunham RC, Pourbohloul B, Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything, BMC Public Health 11: 932.